Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (79%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on November 7?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 22¢ · $198 held · ends Nov 7

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$198.45

Combined PnL

-$28.8

Smart Money Entry

24.4¢ → 21.5¢

-12% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$126.7

Total Shares629

Combined PnL-$26.7

No3 traders

Total Value$71.75

Total Shares90

Combined PnL-$2.1

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 24.5¢	$301.95	$89.04	-$25.83	40% 857-1304 (2161)
Roflan-ludoman<$100	Noavg 72.5¢	$29	$30.33	-$2.4	62% 668-404 (1072)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 76.2¢	$20.8	$20.78	-$0.02	54% 10678-9209 (19887)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 74.6¢	$20.32	$20.64	+$0.32	58% 21422-15550 (36972)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.9¢	$18.11	$20.54	+$2.43	19% 2922-12389 (15311)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 25.1¢	$20.42	$17.12	-$3.3	56% 738-570 (1308)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$301.95

Value

$89.04

PnL

-$25.83

Record

40%

857-1304 (2161)

Roflan-ludoman<$100

Invested

$29

Value

$30.33

PnL

-$2.4

Record

62%

668-404 (1072)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$20.8

Value

$20.78

PnL

-$0.02

Record

54%

10678-9209 (19887)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$20.32

Value

$20.64

PnL

+$0.32

Record

58%

21422-15550 (36972)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.11

Value

$20.54

PnL

+$2.43

Record

19%

2922-12389 (15311)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.42

Value

$17.12

PnL

-$3.3

Record

56%

738-570 (1308)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.4%

21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$327.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

427.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.