Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on November 4?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 68¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$48.86

Smart Money Entry

74.5¢ → 68¢

-9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$959.03

Total Shares1,173

Combined PnL+$75.11

Yes6 traders

Total Value$99.01

Total Shares581

Combined PnL-$26.26

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 74.3¢	$742.21	$818.65	+$76.44	44% 771-970 (1741)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.2¢	$50.25	$47.11	-$3.14	59% 1692-1192 (2884)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 27.1¢	$66.23	$41.61	-$24.62	56% 617-491 (1108)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 76.3¢	$44.23	$41.47	-$2.76	58% 2448-1791 (4239)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 81.3¢	$42.79	$38.05	-$4.74	58% 18645-13742 (32387)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 72.9¢	$33.78	$36.21	+$2.43	53% 9749-8519 (18268)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 69.5¢	$17.36	$20.5	+$3.14	79% 11970-3164 (15134)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.2¢	$3.66	$6.81	+$3.15	20% 2494-9935 (12429)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 70.1¢	$3.55	$4.16	+$0.6	39% 976-1556 (2532)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 31.1¢	$3.17	$1.74	-$1.43	47% 1604-1792 (3396)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$1.76	$1.36	-$0.4	54% 22041-19146 (41187)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$0.2	$0.37	+$0.17	43% 1332-1789 (3121)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$742.21

Value

$818.65

PnL

+$76.44

Record

44%

771-970 (1741)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.25

Value

$47.11

PnL

-$3.14

Record

59%

1692-1192 (2884)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.23

Value

$41.61

PnL

-$24.62

Record

56%

617-491 (1108)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$44.23

Value

$41.47

PnL

-$2.76

Record

58%

2448-1791 (4239)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$42.79

Value

$38.05

PnL

-$4.74

Record

58%

18645-13742 (32387)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$33.78

Value

$36.21

PnL

+$2.43

Record

53%

9749-8519 (18268)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$17.36

Value

$20.5

PnL

+$3.14

Record

79%

11970-3164 (15134)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.66

Value

$6.81

PnL

+$3.15

Record

20%

2494-9935 (12429)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.55

Value

$4.16

PnL

+$0.6

Record

39%

976-1556 (2532)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.17

Value

$1.74

PnL

-$1.43

Record

47%

1604-1792 (3396)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.76

Value

$1.36

PnL

-$0.4

Record

54%

22041-19146 (41187)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.37

PnL

+$0.17

Record

43%

1332-1789 (3121)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.