Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on November 5?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 100¢ · $296 held · ends Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$295.61

Combined PnL

$8.07

Smart Money Entry

95.1¢ → 100¢

+5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$295.01

Total Shares296

Combined PnL+$8.54

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.6

Total Shares300

Combined PnL-$0.47

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658	No	$124.06	$124.06	+$1.52	41% 1232-1796 (3028)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 94.9¢	$102.97	$73.89	+$3.67	58% 20277-14893 (35170)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 92¢	$29.56	$29.55	+$1.27	53% 8428-7501 (15929)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$30	$22.99	+$0.37	44% 2233-2896 (5129)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$20.07	$20.06	+$1.51	54% 10291-8895 (19186)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$14.29	$14.49	+$0.2	31% 2678-6002 (8680)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$9.97	$9.97	-$0	58% 12052-8655 (20707)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.07	$0.6	-$0.47	20% 2785-10964 (13749)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658

Invested

$124.06

Value

$124.06

PnL

+$1.52

Record

41%

1232-1796 (3028)

ghorrock

Invested

$102.97

Value

$73.89

PnL

+$3.67

Record

58%

20277-14893 (35170)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$29.56

Value

$29.55

PnL

+$1.27

Record

53%

8428-7501 (15929)

123987456<$100

Invested

$30

Value

$22.99

PnL

+$0.37

Record

44%

2233-2896 (5129)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$20.07

Value

$20.06

PnL

+$1.51

Record

54%

10291-8895 (19186)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$14.29

Value

$14.49

PnL

+$0.2

Record

31%

2678-6002 (8680)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$9.97

Value

$9.97

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

12052-8655 (20707)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.07

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$0.47

Record

20%

2785-10964 (13749)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.