Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on November 5?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 100¢ · $395 held · ends Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$394.84

Combined PnL

$62.38

Smart Money Entry

98.9¢ → 100¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$394.65

Total Shares395

Combined PnL+$62.28

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.2

Total Shares49

Combined PnL+$0.1

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 99.8¢	$111.23	$111.38	+$0.16	42% 1221-1710 (2931)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$76.53	$76.64	+$0.11	41% 2318-3356 (5674)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$57.25	$57.48	+$0.24	41% 1152-1658 (2810)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$46.49	$46.64	+$0.14	47% 1710-1898 (3608)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$43.56	$43.6	+$0.04	58% 12041-8590 (20631)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$21.59	$21.69	+$0.1	53% 23096-20320 (43416)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$14.91	$14.99	+$0.07	31% 2671-5963 (8634)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$9.98	$10	+$0.01	39% 1099-1727 (2826)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 54.3¢	$51.2	$7.24	+$61.36	41% 1223-1782 (3005)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$4.95	$5	+$0.05	58% 20250-14870 (35120)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.1	$0.2	+$0.1	20% 2781-10948 (13729)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$111.23

Value

$111.38

PnL

+$0.16

Record

42%

1221-1710 (2931)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$76.53

Value

$76.64

PnL

+$0.11

Record

41%

2318-3356 (5674)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$57.25

Value

$57.48

PnL

+$0.24

Record

41%

1152-1658 (2810)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$46.49

Value

$46.64

PnL

+$0.14

Record

47%

1710-1898 (3608)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$43.56

Value

$43.6

PnL

+$0.04

Record

58%

12041-8590 (20631)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$21.59

Value

$21.69

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

23096-20320 (43416)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$14.91

Value

$14.99

PnL

+$0.07

Record

31%

2671-5963 (8634)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.01

Record

39%

1099-1727 (2826)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$51.2

Value

$7.24

PnL

+$61.36

Record

41%

1223-1782 (3005)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

20250-14870 (35120)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.2

PnL

+$0.1

Record

20%

2781-10948 (13729)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.