Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on November 6?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 57¢ · $95 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$94.85
$13.77
Research grade
NeutralNo at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.9¢ | $47.6 | $62.37 | +$14.77 | 43% 818-1092 (1910) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 59.2¢ | $17.77 | $17.1 | -$0.67 | 50% 9914-9924 (19838) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 58.2¢ | $8.26 | $8.08 | -$0.17 | 39% 1105-1735 (2840) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 58.2¢ | $7.45 | $7.3 | -$0.16 | 47% 775-863 (1638) |
Invested
$47.6
Value
$62.37
PnL
+$14.77
Record
43%
818-1092 (1910)
Invested
$17.77
Value
$17.1
PnL
-$0.67
Record
50%
9914-9924 (19838)
Invested
$8.26
Value
$8.08
PnL
-$0.17
Record
39%
1105-1735 (2840)
Invested
$7.45
Value
$7.3
PnL
-$0.16
Record
47%
775-863 (1638)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.