Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on November 2?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 100¢ · $116 held · ends Nov 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$115.84

Combined PnL

-$8.51

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 99.6¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$108.86

Total Shares108

Combined PnL+$0.81

Yes1 trader

Total Value$6.99

Total Shares304

Combined PnL-$9.32

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$46.27	$46.15	-$0.12	37% 633-1096 (1729)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$16.75	$16.77	+$0.01	38% 1387-2298 (3685)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$14.16	$14.11	-$0.05	38% 680-1090 (1770)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$11.92	$11.98	+$0.06	56% 3732-2932 (6664)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.15	$10.12	-$0.03	35% 698-1270 (1968)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$15.09	$6.99	-$9.32	61% 2332-1521 (3853)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$5.2	$5.22	+$0.02	35% 554-1008 (1562)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 94.9¢	$13.18	$4.51	+$0.91	57% 17226-12892 (30118)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$46.27

Value

$46.15

PnL

-$0.12

Record

37%

633-1096 (1729)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$16.75

Value

$16.77

PnL

+$0.01

Record

38%

1387-2298 (3685)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$14.16

Value

$14.11

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

680-1090 (1770)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$11.92

Value

$11.98

PnL

+$0.06

Record

56%

3732-2932 (6664)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$10.15

Value

$10.12

PnL

-$0.03

Record

35%

698-1270 (1968)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.09

Value

$6.99

PnL

-$9.32

Record

61%

2332-1521 (3853)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.22

PnL

+$0.02

Record

35%

554-1008 (1562)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$13.18

Value

$4.51

PnL

+$0.91

Record

57%

17226-12892 (30118)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.