Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on October 30?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 47¢ · $590 held · ends Oct 30

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$590.44

Combined PnL

$70.39

Smart Money Entry

38.8¢ → 46.5¢

+20% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$411.6

Total Shares864

Combined PnL+$60.23

No1 trader

Total Value$178.52

Total Shares290

Combined PnL+$10.16

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 38.2¢	$269.64	$324.58	+$54.95	51% 609-591 (1200)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 58¢	$290.27	$178.52	+$10.16	55% 340-274 (614)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 39.9¢	$43.46	$46.71	+$1.83	59% 1692-1154 (2846)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$25.73	$28.18	+$2.45	50% 1726-1710 (3436)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 42.7¢	$11.13	$12.12	+$1	57% 13381-10228 (23609)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$269.64

Value

$324.58

PnL

+$54.95

Record

51%

609-591 (1200)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$290.27

Value

$178.52

PnL

+$10.16

Record

55%

340-274 (614)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.46

Value

$46.71

PnL

+$1.83

Record

59%

1692-1154 (2846)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.73

Value

$28.18

PnL

+$2.45

Record

50%

1726-1710 (3436)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.13

Value

$12.12

PnL

+$1

Record

57%

13381-10228 (23609)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.