Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on November 1?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 83¢ · $213 held · ends Nov 1

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$212.6

Combined PnL

$9.89

Smart Money Entry

81.9¢ → 82.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$161.09

Total Shares179

Combined PnL+$6.45

Yes1 trader

Total Value$51.51

Total Shares294

Combined PnL+$3.44

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO rocky42019	Noavg 81.9¢	$108.45	$67.56	+$3.28	42% 1717-2340 (4057)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.3¢	$48.08	$51.51	+$3.44	59% 1828-1274 (3102)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 81.9¢	$45.16	$47.44	+$2.28	50% 1843-1820 (3663)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 82.5¢	$32.91	$25.69	+$1.08	53% 6559-5774 (12333)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 81¢	$21.5	$20.4	-$0.2	20% 318-1310 (1628)

rocky42019

Invested

$108.45

Value

$67.56

PnL

+$3.28

Record

42%

1717-2340 (4057)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.08

Value

$51.51

PnL

+$3.44

Record

59%

1828-1274 (3102)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$45.16

Value

$47.44

PnL

+$2.28

Record

50%

1843-1820 (3663)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$32.91

Value

$25.69

PnL

+$1.08

Record

53%

6559-5774 (12333)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$21.5

Value

$20.4

PnL

-$0.2

Record

20%

318-1310 (1628)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.