Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on November 2?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 100¢ · $360 held · ends Nov 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$360.12

Combined PnL

$6.99

Smart Money Entry

84.6¢ → 99.5¢

+18% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$159.1

Total Shares161

Combined PnL+$15.19

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.66

Total Shares32

Combined PnL-$8.2

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+26 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100	Yesavg 27.4¢	$209.13	$200.36	-$23.53	50% 725-718 (1443)
└ No leg	Noavg 55.1¢	$81.31	$140.2	+$44.13
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.4¢	$149.7	$60.16	-$67.66
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99¢	$45.9	$45.83	-$0.07	42% 938-1305 (2243)
RO rocky42019<$100	Noavg 63.4¢	$44.67	$45.29	+$7.87	42% 1795-2476 (4271)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$19.8	$19.16	-$0.64	35% 698-1270 (1968)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 79.3¢	$33.17	$13.97	+$5.73	57% 17226-12892 (30118)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 93.1¢	$12.4	$13.05	+$0.64	38% 1387-2298 (3685)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$10.13	$10.1	-$0.03	38% 680-1090 (1770)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 90¢	$6.85	$6.96	+$0.11	38% 751-1204 (1955)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100	Noavg 58¢	$2.9	$4.75	+$1.58	58% 1611-1157 (2768)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.7¢	$8.86	$0.66	-$8.2	35% 554-1008 (1562)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$209.13

Value

$200.36

PnL

-$23.53

Record

50%

725-718 (1443)

Both legs:

No$81.3155.1¢+$44.13

Yes$149.727.4¢-$67.66

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$45.9

Value

$45.83

PnL

-$0.07

Record

42%

938-1305 (2243)

rocky42019<$100

Invested

$44.67

Value

$45.29

PnL

+$7.87

Record

42%

1795-2476 (4271)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$19.8

Value

$19.16

PnL

-$0.64

Record

35%

698-1270 (1968)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$33.17

Value

$13.97

PnL

+$5.73

Record

57%

17226-12892 (30118)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$12.4

Value

$13.05

PnL

+$0.64

Record

38%

1387-2298 (3685)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$10.13

Value

$10.1

PnL

-$0.03

Record

38%

680-1090 (1770)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$6.85

Value

$6.96

PnL

+$0.11

Record

38%

751-1204 (1955)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100

Invested

$2.9

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$1.58

Record

58%

1611-1157 (2768)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.86

Value

$0.66

PnL

-$8.2

Record

35%

554-1008 (1562)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+26 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.