Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on November 1?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 42¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
3 arb excluded
$1.1K
$11.77
Research grade
NeutralYes at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 66.5¢ | $781.03 | $655.48 | -$32.3 | 20% 318-1310 (1628) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 66.5¢ | $435.88 | $383.46 | -$54.07 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 37.4¢ | $245.15 | $272.02 | +$21.77 | |
RO rocky42019ARB<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $253.61 | $244.37 | -$9.24 | 42% 1717-2340 (4057) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 62¢ | $161.81 | $137.02 | -$24.79 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 40.6¢ | $91.8 | $107.35 | +$15.55 | |
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Noavg 52.8¢ | $109.24 | $124.41 | +$15.17 | 59% 1828-1274 (3102) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 52.8¢ | $64.04 | $70.92 | +$6.88 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 35.1¢ | $45.2 | $53.49 | +$8.29 | |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $26.23 | $40.13 | +$13.9 | 50% 1843-1820 (3663) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38.3¢ | $17.45 | $7.45 | -$1.94 | 57% 13804-10576 (24380) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $5.5 | $5.3 | -$0.2 | 53% 6559-5774 (12333) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$781.03
Value
$655.48
PnL
-$32.3
Record
20%
318-1310 (1628)
Both legs:
Invested
$253.61
Value
$244.37
PnL
-$9.24
Record
42%
1717-2340 (4057)
Both legs:
Invested
$109.24
Value
$124.41
PnL
+$15.17
Record
59%
1828-1274 (3102)
Both legs:
Invested
$26.23
Value
$40.13
PnL
+$13.9
Record
50%
1843-1820 (3663)
Invested
$17.45
Value
$7.45
PnL
-$1.94
Record
57%
13804-10576 (24380)
Invested
$5.5
Value
$5.3
PnL
-$0.2
Record
53%
6559-5774 (12333)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.