Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on November 2?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 100¢ · $798 held · ends Nov 2

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

Total Value

$797.95

Combined PnL

$391.66

Smart Money Entry

45.7¢ → 99.8¢

+118% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$796.35

Total Shares816

Combined PnL+$425.86

No4 traders

Total Value$1.06

Total Shares467

Combined PnL-$34.19

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 45.7¢	$344.75	$746.52	+$401.77	50% 727-724 (1451)
RO rocky42019<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$35.29	$45.63	+$22.63	42% 1795-2476 (4271)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$2.74	$4.2	+$1.46	35% 704-1298 (2002)
IstarothCTR	Noavg 51.7¢	$30.88	$0.66	-$30.22	17% 399-1952 (2351)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 0.4¢	$0.35	$0.3	-$0.05	36% 635-1124 (1759)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 0.5¢	$0.01	$0.08	+$0	41% 939-1335 (2274)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 35.8¢	$3.94	$0.02	-$3.92	37% 1392-2373 (3765)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$344.75

Value

$746.52

PnL

+$401.77

Record

50%

727-724 (1451)

rocky42019<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.29

Value

$45.63

PnL

+$22.63

Record

42%

1795-2476 (4271)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.74

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$1.46

Record

35%

704-1298 (2002)

IstarothCTR

Invested

$30.88

Value

$0.66

PnL

-$30.22

Record

17%

399-1952 (2351)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$0.05

Record

36%

635-1124 (1759)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.08

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

939-1335 (2274)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$3.94

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.92

Record

37%

1392-2373 (3765)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.