Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on November 1?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 75¢ · $695 held · ends Nov 1

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$695.17

Combined PnL

$27.47

Smart Money Entry

66.1¢ → 75¢

+13% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$564.48

Total Shares775

Combined PnL+$38.16

Yes2 traders

Total Value$130.69

Total Shares451

Combined PnL-$10.69

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 66.2¢	$476.08	$510.93	+$38.45	50% 647-636 (1283)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Yesavg 35.5¢	$82.8	$67.57	-$15.23	42% 1717-2340 (4057)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 26.9¢	$58.59	$63.12	+$4.54	59% 1805-1255 (3060)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 65.6¢	$50.5	$50	-$0.28	20% 312-1273 (1585)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 71¢	$3.55	$3.55	+$0	53% 6540-5754 (12294)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$476.08

Value

$510.93

PnL

+$38.45

Record

50%

647-636 (1283)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.8

Value

$67.57

PnL

-$15.23

Record

42%

1717-2340 (4057)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.59

Value

$63.12

PnL

+$4.54

Record

59%

1805-1255 (3060)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$50.5

Value

$50

PnL

-$0.28

Record

20%

312-1273 (1585)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.55

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

6540-5754 (12294)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.