Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 30?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $193 held · ends Oct 30

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$192.51

Combined PnL

$2.96

Smart Money Entry

96.4¢ → 100¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$187.27

Total Shares191

Combined PnL-$0.02

Yes3 traders

Total Value$5.24

Total Shares252

Combined PnL+$2.99

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 99¢	$124.74	$124.01	-$0.73	61% 20932-13324 (34256)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$56.84	$33.73	-$3.69	57% 13509-10335 (23844)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 83.8¢	$25.14	$29.54	+$4.4	59% 1714-1183 (2897)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$1.21	$4.2	+$2.99	53% 6459-5657 (12116)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yes	$0.96	$0.96	+$0.96	36% 15259-27344 (42603)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$1.04	$0.08	-$0.96	18% 525-2348 (2873)

balthazar

Invested

$124.74

Value

$124.01

PnL

-$0.73

Record

61%

20932-13324 (34256)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$56.84

Value

$33.73

PnL

-$3.69

Record

57%

13509-10335 (23844)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$25.14

Value

$29.54

PnL

+$4.4

Record

59%

1714-1183 (2897)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.21

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$2.99

Record

53%

6459-5657 (12116)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.96

Value

$0.96

PnL

+$0.96

Record

36%

15259-27344 (42603)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.96

Record

18%

525-2348 (2873)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.