Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (74%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on November 7?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 26¢ · $81 held · ends Nov 7

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$81.3

Combined PnL

-$2.74

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$59.2

Total Shares80

Combined PnL-$20.72

Yes3 traders

Total Value$22.1

Total Shares85

Combined PnL+$17.98

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$79.92	$59.2	-$20.72	97% 311-8 (319)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$2.6	$15.6	+$13	40% 854-1296 (2150)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.3¢	$1.46	$5.2	+$3.74	17% 4506-22075 (26581)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.06	$1.3	+$1.24	42% 920-1269 (2189)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$79.92

Value

$59.2

PnL

-$20.72

Record

97%

311-8 (319)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.6

Value

$15.6

PnL

+$13

Record

40%

854-1296 (2150)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.46

Value

$5.2

PnL

+$3.74

Record

17%

4506-22075 (26581)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$1.3

PnL

+$1.24

Record

42%

920-1269 (2189)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.0%

26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$257.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

357.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.