Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on November 5?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 83¢ · $514 held · ends Nov 5

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$513.55

Combined PnL

-$10.85

Smart Money Entry

83.8¢ → 83¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$417.38

Total Shares483

Combined PnL+$4.36

Yes2 traders

Total Value$36.62

Total Shares305

Combined PnL-$15.2

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 82.5¢	$181.83	$185.09	+$3.25	44% 797-1006 (1803)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86.1¢	$96.91	$59.56	-$1.37	58% 19476-14320 (33796)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 81.1¢	$76.73	$59.55	+$3.18	14% 461-2758 (3219)
└ No leg	Noavg 81.1¢	$32.46	$33.6	-$5.09
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 11.7¢	$25.41	$25.95	+$8.27
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 84.6¢	$47.31	$47.02	-$0.28	54% 10041-8677 (18718)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 81.8¢	$40.75	$41.82	+$1.07	40% 2181-3225 (5406)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 17.1¢	$51.25	$36.02	-$15.22	58% 2493-1822 (4315)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 86.1¢	$31.99	$34.21	+$2.23	18% 4284-20059 (24343)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 86.5¢	$54.16	$31.57	-$0.95	77% 12539-3686 (16225)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 79.8¢	$13.06	$13.81	+$0.75	55% 4411-3608 (8019)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 90.5¢	$4.63	$4.3	-$0.33	40% 1050-1578 (2628)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.6¢	$0.58	$0.6	+$0.02	32% 2522-5398 (7920)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$181.83

Value

$185.09

PnL

+$3.25

Record

44%

797-1006 (1803)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$96.91

Value

$59.56

PnL

-$1.37

Record

58%

19476-14320 (33796)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$76.73

Value

$59.55

PnL

+$3.18

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

Both legs:

No$32.4681.1¢-$5.09

Yes$25.4111.7¢+$8.27

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$47.31

Value

$47.02

PnL

-$0.28

Record

54%

10041-8677 (18718)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$40.75

Value

$41.82

PnL

+$1.07

Record

40%

2181-3225 (5406)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.25

Value

$36.02

PnL

-$15.22

Record

58%

2493-1822 (4315)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$31.99

Value

$34.21

PnL

+$2.23

Record

18%

4284-20059 (24343)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$54.16

Value

$31.57

PnL

-$0.95

Record

77%

12539-3686 (16225)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$13.06

Value

$13.81

PnL

+$0.75

Record

55%

4411-3608 (8019)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.63

Value

$4.3

PnL

-$0.33

Record

40%

1050-1578 (2628)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.58

Value

$0.6

PnL

+$0.02

Record

32%

2522-5398 (7920)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.6%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.