Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on November 5?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 90¢ · $194 held · ends Nov 5

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$194.43

Combined PnL

$132.77

Smart Money Entry

81.5¢ → 90.1¢

+11% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$155.29

Total Shares173

Combined PnL+$132.18

Yes6 traders

Total Value$39.14

Total Shares566

Combined PnL+$0.59

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 82.3¢	$56.44	$51.03	-$5.41	54% 10311-8906 (19217)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 89.9¢	$129.49	$35.63	-$12.18	58% 20305-14907 (35212)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 89.8¢	$35.92	$35.24	-$0.68	53% 23194-20409 (43603)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$29.23	$21.9	-$7.33	42% 821-1112 (1933)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Noavg 83.7¢	$18.37	$18.37	+$0	58% 6691-4768 (11459)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 6.6¢	$13.82	$10.28	+$150.5	41% 1238-1808 (3046)
ZW zwaaanCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.8¢	$5.23	$9.34	+$4.1	54% 134-115 (249)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.4¢	$19.41	$6.69	+$3.83	18% 4435-20817 (25252)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$20	$4.75	-$0.05	43% 2237-2912 (5149)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.7¢	$35	$0.5	-$0.08	75% 13139-4322 (17461)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.4¢	$8.01	$0.41	-$0.13	31% 2683-6056 (8739)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$15.01	$0.31	+$0.19	53% 8440-7509 (15949)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$56.44

Value

$51.03

PnL

-$5.41

Record

54%

10311-8906 (19217)

ghorrock

Invested

$129.49

Value

$35.63

PnL

-$12.18

Record

58%

20305-14907 (35212)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$35.92

Value

$35.24

PnL

-$0.68

Record

53%

23194-20409 (43603)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.23

Value

$21.9

PnL

-$7.33

Record

42%

821-1112 (1933)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Invested

$18.37

Value

$18.37

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

6691-4768 (11459)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$13.82

Value

$10.28

PnL

+$150.5

Record

41%

1238-1808 (3046)

zwaaanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.23

Value

$9.34

PnL

+$4.1

Record

54%

134-115 (249)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.41

Value

$6.69

PnL

+$3.83

Record

18%

4435-20817 (25252)

123987456<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$4.75

PnL

-$0.05

Record

43%

2237-2912 (5149)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$0.08

Record

75%

13139-4322 (17461)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.01

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$0.13

Record

31%

2683-6056 (8739)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.01

Value

$0.31

PnL

+$0.19

Record

53%

8440-7509 (15949)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.5%

90.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.