Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on November 15?

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $249 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$248.54

Combined PnL

-$0.99

Smart Money Entry

92.8¢ → 99.4¢

+7% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$246.55

Total Shares248

Combined PnL+$15.22

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.98

Total Shares257

Combined PnL-$16.21

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 89.7¢	$118.08	$130.65	+$12.57	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$24.55	$24.81	+$0.26	38% 3804-6225 (10029)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$22.26	$21.83	-$0.43	51% 945-892 (1837)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$20.25	$20.34	+$0.09	60% 874-593 (1467)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$20.15	$20.14	-$0.01	47% 1242-1391 (2633)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Noavg 89.6¢	$9.99	$11.08	+$1.09	38% 329-529 (858)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 84¢	$8.74	$10.35	+$1.6	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$5.08	$4.98	-$0.1	50% 919-925 (1844)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 93.6¢	$2.23	$2.37	+$0.14	49% 854-884 (1738)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$18.13	$1.26	-$16.87	42% 803-1100 (1903)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$62.66	$0.25	+$1.73	29% 308-740 (1048)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.43	$0.23	-$0.21	52% 909-844 (1753)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$0.33	$0.12	-$0.21	58% 864-619 (1483)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$0.32	$0.08	-$0.24	41% 276-405 (681)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.46	$0.04	-$0.42	40% 2676-3963 (6639)

cigarettes

Invested

$118.08

Value

$130.65

PnL

+$12.57

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$24.55

Value

$24.81

PnL

+$0.26

Record

38%

3804-6225 (10029)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$22.26

Value

$21.83

PnL

-$0.43

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$20.25

Value

$20.34

PnL

+$0.09

Record

60%

874-593 (1467)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$20.15

Value

$20.14

PnL

-$0.01

Record

47%

1242-1391 (2633)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$11.08

PnL

+$1.09

Record

38%

329-529 (858)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$8.74

Value

$10.35

PnL

+$1.6

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.08

Value

$4.98

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$2.23

Value

$2.37

PnL

+$0.14

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.13

Value

$1.26

PnL

-$16.87

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.66

Value

$0.25

PnL

+$1.73

Record

29%

308-740 (1048)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$0.21

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.33

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$0.21

Record

58%

864-619 (1483)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.24

Record

41%

276-405 (681)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.46

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.42

Record

40%

2676-3963 (6639)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.