Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (69%). 11 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 6°C on November 15?

11 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (55%) · Yes at 31¢ · $628 held · ended Nov 15

Yes31¢No69¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$627.98

Combined PnL

$92.98

Smart Money Entry

23.9¢ → 30.6¢

+28% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 20 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$351.08

Total Shares928

Combined PnL+$132.89

No9 traders

Total Value$135.52

Total Shares260

Combined PnL-$39.91

Yes — 55%No — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 20

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BilberryCTR	Yesavg 23.9¢	$123.73	$180.57	+$56.84	43% 56-75 (131)
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 45.7¢	$107.76	$141.38	+$33.62	71% 950-388 (1338)
└ No leg	Noavg 45.7¢	$68.37	$96.83	+$28.46
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31.2¢	$39.39	$44.55	+$5.16
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.3¢	$47.47	$81.77	+$34.3	54% 1238-1053 (2291)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 60.9¢	$89.21	$61.74	-$27.48	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.9¢	$10.61	$29.59	+$18.97	58% 864-619 (1483)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 60.2¢	$13	$17.01	+$4	51% 945-892 (1837)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 25.6¢	$50.35	$11.17	+$10.78	42% 803-1100 (1903)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 41.4¢	$7.6	$10.7	+$3.1	65% 4374-2391 (6765)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 61.9¢	$15.72	$10.6	-$5.12	49% 854-884 (1738)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100	Yesavg 39.5¢	$11.34	$10.03	-$1.31	68% 89-42 (131)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 55.7¢	$7.02	$9.98	+$2.96	52% 909-844 (1753)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.1¢	$1.94	$9.33	+$7.39	60% 874-593 (1467)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 53.6¢	$7.97	$8.17	+$0.2	57% 836-638 (1474)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 67¢	$12.73	$7.92	-$4.81	38% 3804-6225 (10029)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 77.5¢	$13.98	$7.52	-$6.46	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 56.4¢	$9.01	$6.66	-$2.35	47% 1242-1391 (2633)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Yesavg 49.3¢	$9.99	$6.22	-$3.77	38% 329-529 (858)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 66.3¢	$6.79	$5.93	-$0.86	50% 919-925 (1844)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 41.4¢	$4.14	$5.83	+$1.69	41% 276-405 (681)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 34.9¢	$1.76	$2.94	+$1.18	47% 887-1007 (1894)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.25	$2.93	+$3.71	40% 2676-3963 (6639)

BilberryCTR

Yes

Invested

$123.73

Value

$180.57

PnL

+$56.84

Record

43%

56-75 (131)

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$107.76

Value

$141.38

PnL

+$33.62

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

Both legs:

No$68.3745.7¢+$28.46

Yes$39.3931.2¢+$5.16

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.47

Value

$81.77

PnL

+$34.3

Record

54%

1238-1053 (2291)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$89.21

Value

$61.74

PnL

-$27.48

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.61

Value

$29.59

PnL

+$18.97

Record

58%

864-619 (1483)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$13

Value

$17.01

PnL

+$4

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.35

Value

$11.17

PnL

+$10.78

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.6

Value

$10.7

PnL

+$3.1

Record

65%

4374-2391 (6765)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$15.72

Value

$10.6

PnL

-$5.12

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.34

Value

$10.03

PnL

-$1.31

Record

68%

89-42 (131)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$7.02

Value

$9.98

PnL

+$2.96

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.94

Value

$9.33

PnL

+$7.39

Record

60%

874-593 (1467)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$7.97

Value

$8.17

PnL

+$0.2

Record

57%

836-638 (1474)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$12.73

Value

$7.92

PnL

-$4.81

Record

38%

3804-6225 (10029)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$13.98

Value

$7.52

PnL

-$6.46

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$9.01

Value

$6.66

PnL

-$2.35

Record

47%

1242-1391 (2633)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.99

Value

$6.22

PnL

-$3.77

Record

38%

329-529 (858)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$6.79

Value

$5.93

PnL

-$0.86

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.14

Value

$5.83

PnL

+$1.69

Record

41%

276-405 (681)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.76

Value

$2.94

PnL

+$1.18

Record

47%

887-1007 (1894)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.25

Value

$2.93

PnL

+$3.71

Record

40%

2676-3963 (6639)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 20 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 20

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.7%

30.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$205.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

306.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.