Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on November 14?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 98¢ · $156 held · ends Nov 14

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 77%

Total Value

$156.44

Combined PnL

-$32.45

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$59.17

Total Shares506

Combined PnL-$40.75

No10 traders

Total Value$97.27

Total Shares104

Combined PnL+$8.29

Yes — 23%No — 77%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.3¢	$94.82	$55.33	-$39.49	55% 1212-992 (2204)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 95.6¢	$40.15	$40.96	+$0.81	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 83¢	$11.89	$12.74	+$0.86	34% 229-452 (681)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 85.9¢	$59.67	$9.46	+$3.25	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 88¢	$7.19	$7.23	+$0.04	63% 736-439 (1175)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 83¢	$4.98	$5.31	+$0.33	39% 3636-5765 (9401)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 95¢	$5.18	$5.18	-$0	51% 804-766 (1570)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Noavg 94¢	$4.99	$4.91	-$0.08	34% 252-482 (734)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 96¢	$4.86	$4.76	-$0.1	58% 703-515 (1218)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 90¢	$23.81	$4.43	+$3.24	29% 3178-7933 (11111)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.2¢	$7.06	$3.47	-$3.6	40% 650-980 (1630)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 96¢	$2.33	$2.28	-$0.05	51% 769-727 (1496)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$47.14	$0.38	+$2.34	36% 3754-6795 (10549)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.82

Value

$55.33

PnL

-$39.49

Record

55%

1212-992 (2204)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$40.15

Value

$40.96

PnL

+$0.81

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$11.89

Value

$12.74

PnL

+$0.86

Record

34%

229-452 (681)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$59.67

Value

$9.46

PnL

+$3.25

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$7.19

Value

$7.23

PnL

+$0.04

Record

63%

736-439 (1175)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$4.98

Value

$5.31

PnL

+$0.33

Record

39%

3636-5765 (9401)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.18

Value

$5.18

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

804-766 (1570)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

$4.91

PnL

-$0.08

Record

34%

252-482 (734)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.86

Value

$4.76

PnL

-$0.1

Record

58%

703-515 (1218)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$23.81

Value

$4.43

PnL

+$3.24

Record

29%

3178-7933 (11111)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.06

Value

$3.47

PnL

-$3.6

Record

40%

650-980 (1630)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$2.33

Value

$2.28

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

769-727 (1496)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.14

Value

$0.38

PnL

+$2.34

Record

36%

3754-6795 (10549)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.