Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on November 5?

13 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (72%) · No at 96¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 72%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$8.06

Smart Money Entry

87.3¢ → 95.5¢

+9% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 18 top traders (72%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,201

Combined PnL+$5.17

Yes5 traders

Total Value$9.72

Total Shares90

Combined PnL+$2.89

No — 72%Yes — 28%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 85.5¢	$313.07	$322.34	+$9.27	41% 799-1129 (1928)
24 241532532432	Noavg 91.4¢	$334.31	$308.1	-$26.21	58% 2493-1822 (4315)
PO Poligarch	Noavg 83.4¢	$204.99	$228.36	+$23.36	54% 10037-8676 (18713)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 85.1¢	$88.19	$87.27	-$0.91	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 87¢	$37.19	$37.69	+$0.5	18% 4284-20059 (24343)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 91.9¢	$34.36	$35.54	+$1.17	47% 1690-1872 (3562)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 91.5¢	$20.57	$21.35	+$0.78	77% 12539-3686 (16225)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 92.3¢	$14.59	$13.78	-$0.8	39% 1087-1679 (2766)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 89.5¢	$10.89	$10.25	-$0.64	55% 4411-3608 (8019)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 87.9¢	$22.28	$8.53	-$0.74	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 89.5¢	$5.94	$5.8	-$0.14	47% 2141-2439 (4580)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$5.18	$5.36	+$0.18	56% 631-505 (1136)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 86.6¢	$4.47	$4.36	-$0.11	40% 1050-1578 (2628)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$3.16	$2.8	-$0.36	50% 659-658 (1317)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.6¢	$1.9	$1.88	-$0.02	39% 1055-1660 (2715)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.7¢	$1	$1.18	+$0.18	40% 2177-3221 (5398)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$0.91	$0.81	-$0.1	27% 6849-18792 (25641)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$12.82	$0.5	+$2.65	53% 8228-7325 (15553)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$313.07

Value

$322.34

PnL

+$9.27

Record

41%

799-1129 (1928)

241532532432

Invested

$334.31

Value

$308.1

PnL

-$26.21

Record

58%

2493-1822 (4315)

Poligarch

Invested

$204.99

Value

$228.36

PnL

+$23.36

Record

54%

10037-8676 (18713)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$88.19

Value

$87.27

PnL

-$0.91

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$37.19

Value

$37.69

PnL

+$0.5

Record

18%

4284-20059 (24343)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$34.36

Value

$35.54

PnL

+$1.17

Record

47%

1690-1872 (3562)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$20.57

Value

$21.35

PnL

+$0.78

Record

77%

12539-3686 (16225)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$14.59

Value

$13.78

PnL

-$0.8

Record

39%

1087-1679 (2766)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$10.89

Value

$10.25

PnL

-$0.64

Record

55%

4411-3608 (8019)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$22.28

Value

$8.53

PnL

-$0.74

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.94

Value

$5.8

PnL

-$0.14

Record

47%

2141-2439 (4580)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.18

Value

$5.36

PnL

+$0.18

Record

56%

631-505 (1136)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.47

Value

$4.36

PnL

-$0.11

Record

40%

1050-1578 (2628)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$3.16

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$0.36

Record

50%

659-658 (1317)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.88

PnL

-$0.02

Record

39%

1055-1660 (2715)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.18

PnL

+$0.18

Record

40%

2177-3221 (5398)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.81

PnL

-$0.1

Record

27%

6849-18792 (25641)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.82

Value

$0.5

PnL

+$2.65

Record

53%

8228-7325 (15553)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 18 top traders (72%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.