Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on November 2?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 65¢ · $577 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$576.82
-$6.31
68.3¢ → 64.5¢
-6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
24h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100 | Yesavg 27.8¢ | $272.51 | $405.47 | +$7.1 | 50% 673-674 (1347) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 27.8¢ | $217.7 | $278.14 | +$19.95 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 71¢ | $140.19 | $127.34 | -$12.85 | |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $56.71 | $56.59 | -$0.12 | 53% 6690-5888 (12578) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $41.82 | $43.71 | +$1.9 | 54% 467-391 (858) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 71.7¢ | $43.58 | $38.41 | -$5.17 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 69.5¢ | $50.17 | $25.89 | -$2.43 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.7¢ | $7.24 | $6.74 | -$0.49 | 50% 1908-1873 (3781) |
Invested
$272.51
Value
$405.47
PnL
+$7.1
Record
50%
673-674 (1347)
Both legs:
Invested
$56.71
Value
$56.59
PnL
-$0.12
Record
53%
6690-5888 (12578)
Invested
$41.82
Value
$43.71
PnL
+$1.9
Record
54%
467-391 (858)
Invested
$43.58
Value
$38.41
PnL
-$5.17
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
Invested
$50.17
Value
$25.89
PnL
-$2.43
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$7.24
Value
$6.74
PnL
-$0.49
Record
50%
1908-1873 (3781)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.