Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on November 6?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 100¢ · $379 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
$379.27
-$3.91
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $79.92 | $379.05 | -$0.57 | 97% 264-7 (271) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $1.57 | $0.17 | -$1.4 | 28% 2863-7356 (10219) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.03 | $0.03 | -$0.9 | 53% 12547-10907 (23454) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.5¢ | $1.05 | $0.03 | -$1.03 | 42% 2362-3236 (5598) |
Invested
$79.92
Value
$379.05
PnL
-$0.57
Record
97%
264-7 (271)
Invested
$1.57
Value
$0.17
PnL
-$1.4
Record
28%
2863-7356 (10219)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.9
Record
53%
12547-10907 (23454)
Invested
$1.05
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$1.03
Record
42%
2362-3236 (5598)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.