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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on November 9?

Resolved No. 20% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0

Combined PnL

-$0.16

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 10 top traders (20%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares78

Combined PnL-$0.16

No8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares0

Combined PnL+$0

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.16	—	-$0.16	15% 5011-29434 (34445)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	—	—	+$0	30% 35523-84044 (119567)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	—	—	+$0	43% 18729-24498 (43227)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 80.5¢	—	—	+$0	32% 21967-45855 (67822)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	—	—	+$0	47% 47657-54243 (101900)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	—	—	+$0	43% 5588-7271 (12859)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	—	—	+$0	69% 16770-7378 (24148)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	—	—	+$0	22% 3495-12142 (15637)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	—	—	+$0	46% 6652-7812 (14464)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 56¢	—	—	+$0	57% 25537-19073 (44610)

Invested

$0.16

Value

—

PnL

-$0.16

Record

15%

5011-29434 (34445)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

35523-84044 (119567)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

18729-24498 (43227)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

21967-45855 (67822)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

47657-54243 (101900)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

5588-7271 (12859)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

69%

16770-7378 (24148)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

22%

3495-12142 (15637)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

6652-7812 (14464)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

25537-19073 (44610)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 10 top traders (20%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x6738c9f3...7d1491

Slug

highest-temperature-in-taipei-on-november-9-2026-27c

Traders in this Market

2B9S

Yes — $0

balthazar

No — $0

Lucerys

No — $0

xtxpleasecallme

No — $0

qwen300.fund

No — $0

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

No — $0

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

No — $0

luciebot

Yes — $0

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

No — $0

ghorrock

No — $0

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