Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on November 6?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $231 held · ends Nov 6

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$231.35

Combined PnL

$175.28

Smart Money Entry

30.6¢ → 0.3¢

-99% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$197.63

Total Shares198

Combined PnL+$97.77

Yes6 traders

Total Value$33.72

Total Shares667

Combined PnL+$77.51

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	No	$165.73	$165.73	+$0	52% 30994-29002 (59996)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 33.7¢	$194.44	$33.03	+$99.2	38% 859-1414 (2273)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 55¢	$119.94	$31.9	+$97.77	57% 729-561 (1290)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.6¢	$10.41	$0.41	-$10	19% 2903-12329 (15232)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 43.2¢	$6.48	$0.15	-$6.33	26% 7344-21109 (28453)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.5¢	$0.53	$0.05	-$0.48	42% 2362-3236 (5598)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.7¢	$54.05	$0.05	-$4.8	13% 534-3548 (4082)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$7.92	$0.04	-$0.08	28% 2863-7356 (10219)

balthazar

Invested

$165.73

Value

$165.73

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

30994-29002 (59996)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$194.44

Value

$33.03

PnL

+$99.2

Record

38%

859-1414 (2273)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$119.94

Value

$31.9

PnL

+$97.77

Record

57%

729-561 (1290)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.41

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$10

Record

19%

2903-12329 (15232)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.48

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$6.33

Record

26%

7344-21109 (28453)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.48

Record

42%

2362-3236 (5598)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.05

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$4.8

Record

13%

534-3548 (4082)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.92

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.08

Record

28%

2863-7356 (10219)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7523.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

7623.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.