Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on November 4?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 66¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$61.84

Smart Money Entry

59.6¢ → 65.5¢

+10% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$499.35

Total Shares592

Combined PnL+$64.09

Yes1 trader

Total Value$62.29

Total Shares225

Combined PnL-$2.25

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100	Yesavg 38.1¢	$714.79	$567.75	-$147.04	42% 785-1085 (1870)
└ No leg	Noavg 54.6¢	$252.43	$397.83	+$145.4
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38.1¢	$462.36	$169.92	-$292.44
Istaroth	Noavg 61.9¢	$240.28	$242.96	+$4.69	15% 430-2389 (2819)
QU quietparcel	Noavg 45.9¢	$80.65	$100.64	+$51.18	50% 9499-9511 (19010)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 72.7¢	$71.53	$64.71	-$6.82	53% 9755-8526 (18281)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.6¢	$64.54	$62.29	-$2.25	53% 3719-3330 (7049)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 52.5¢	$40.93	$26.65	+$9.36	79% 11986-3185 (15171)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 74.3¢	$19.06	$13.49	-$1.81	38% 966-1581 (2547)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 64.2¢	$35.27	$12.95	-$4.01	58% 18775-13813 (32588)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 48.9¢	$35.5	$12.74	+$12.23	53% 8015-7117 (15132)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 75.9¢	$15.53	$9.94	-$1.75	38% 978-1567 (2545)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 82.3¢	$8.15	$7.28	-$0.87	30% 2141-4968 (7109)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 66.1¢	$3.43	$4.45	+$1.03	47% 1605-1792 (3397)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 52.3¢	$2.69	$3.55	+$0.86	47% 2049-2324 (4373)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$714.79

Value

$567.75

PnL

-$147.04

Record

42%

785-1085 (1870)

Both legs:

No$252.4354.6¢+$145.4

Yes$462.3638.1¢-$292.44

Istaroth

Invested

$240.28

Value

$242.96

PnL

+$4.69

Record

15%

430-2389 (2819)

quietparcel

Invested

$80.65

Value

$100.64

PnL

+$51.18

Record

50%

9499-9511 (19010)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$71.53

Value

$64.71

PnL

-$6.82

Record

53%

9755-8526 (18281)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.54

Value

$62.29

PnL

-$2.25

Record

53%

3719-3330 (7049)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$40.93

Value

$26.65

PnL

+$9.36

Record

79%

11986-3185 (15171)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$19.06

Value

$13.49

PnL

-$1.81

Record

38%

966-1581 (2547)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$35.27

Value

$12.95

PnL

-$4.01

Record

58%

18775-13813 (32588)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$35.5

Value

$12.74

PnL

+$12.23

Record

53%

8015-7117 (15132)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$15.53

Value

$9.94

PnL

-$1.75

Record

38%

978-1567 (2545)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$8.15

Value

$7.28

PnL

-$0.87

Record

30%

2141-4968 (7109)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.43

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$1.03

Record

47%

1605-1792 (3397)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$2.69

Value

$3.55

PnL

+$0.86

Record

47%

2049-2324 (4373)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.