Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on November 5?

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 100¢ · $322 held · ends Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$322.45

Combined PnL

$17.34

Smart Money Entry

94.2¢ → 99.8¢

+6% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$321.83

Total Shares323

Combined PnL+$17.34

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.62

Total Shares10

Combined PnL+$0

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar<$100	Noavg 86.2¢	$57.36	$66.01	+$8.65	53% 29676-26572 (56248)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92.8¢	$62.04	$63.39	+$4.68	58% 20160-14785 (34945)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$47.2	$47.57	+$0.37	47% 1706-1889 (3595)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$35.87	$35.85	-$0.02	31% 2658-5876 (8534)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$30.22	$31.07	+$0.85	55% 4477-3683 (8160)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 87.2¢	$17.44	$19.92	+$2.48	53% 23002-20232 (43234)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$15.18	$15.16	-$0.01	41% 1142-1647 (2789)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$11.98	$11.98	-$0	47% 2242-2511 (4753)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$9.98	$10.13	+$0.15	41% 1203-1759 (2962)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$9.68	$9.66	-$0.02	39% 1093-1715 (2808)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$5.94	$6.12	+$0.18	42% 1214-1705 (2919)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$4.94	$4.98	+$0.04	27% 6972-19073 (26045)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.4¢	$0.62	$0.62	+$0	20% 2639-10442 (13081)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$57.36

Value

$66.01

PnL

+$8.65

Record

53%

29676-26572 (56248)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$62.04

Value

$63.39

PnL

+$4.68

Record

58%

20160-14785 (34945)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$47.2

Value

$47.57

PnL

+$0.37

Record

47%

1706-1889 (3595)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$35.87

Value

$35.85

PnL

-$0.02

Record

31%

2658-5876 (8534)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$30.22

Value

$31.07

PnL

+$0.85

Record

55%

4477-3683 (8160)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$17.44

Value

$19.92

PnL

+$2.48

Record

53%

23002-20232 (43234)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$15.18

Value

$15.16

PnL

-$0.01

Record

41%

1142-1647 (2789)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$11.98

Value

$11.98

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

2242-2511 (4753)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$10.13

PnL

+$0.15

Record

41%

1203-1759 (2962)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$9.68

Value

$9.66

PnL

-$0.02

Record

39%

1093-1715 (2808)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.94

Value

$6.12

PnL

+$0.18

Record

42%

1214-1705 (2919)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$4.94

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.04

Record

27%

6972-19073 (26045)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.62

Value

$0.62

PnL

+$0

Record

20%

2639-10442 (13081)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.