Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on November 1?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $365 held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$364.63
-$180.38
51¢ → 0.5¢
-99% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 49.6¢ | $313.82 | $135.31 | -$178.51 | 50% 667-669 (1336) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 50.9¢ | $155.96 | $87.06 | +$54.32 | 53% 6657-5851 (12508) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 57.3¢ | $71.2 | $80.58 | +$9.38 | 19% 352-1519 (1871) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR | Yesavg 55.5¢ | $117.64 | $45.19 | -$72.45 | 54% 457-383 (840) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 65.7¢ | $22.29 | $16.49 | +$6.88 | 56% 14151-10960 (25111) |
Invested
$313.82
Value
$135.31
PnL
-$178.51
Record
50%
667-669 (1336)
Invested
$155.96
Value
$87.06
PnL
+$54.32
Record
53%
6657-5851 (12508)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$71.2
Value
$80.58
PnL
+$9.38
Record
19%
352-1519 (1871)
Invested
$117.64
Value
$45.19
PnL
-$72.45
Record
54%
457-383 (840)
Invested
$22.29
Value
$16.49
PnL
+$6.88
Record
56%
14151-10960 (25111)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.