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No
IstarothCTR<$100YesYesNoYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on November 1?
Resolved No. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 67%
Total Value
$87.19
Combined PnL
-$23.33
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$87.19
Total Shares87
Combined PnL+$3.21
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares464
Combined PnL-$26.54
No — 40%Yes — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $83.98 | $87.19 | +$3.21 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $25.42 | — | -$25.42 | 18% 365-1641 (2006) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $1.12 | — | -$1.12 | 54% 467-391 (858) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 89.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1908-1873 (3781) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 16080-28084 (44164) |
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
$83.98
Value
$87.19
PnL
+$3.21
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$25.42
Value
—
PnL
-$25.42
Record
18%
365-1641 (2006)
HE
HellYeahTraderCTR<$100Invested
$1.12
Value
—
PnL
-$1.12
Record
54%
467-391 (858)
HE
hello.67<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1908-1873 (3781)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
16080-28084 (44164)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x179d61ed...ff5e3e
Slug
highest-temperature-in-singapore-on-november-1-2026-34c