Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on October 30?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 99¢ · $61 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$60.97
$0.25
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $29.08 | $30.18 | +$1.1 | 53% 6459-5657 (12116) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95.1¢ | $69.29 | $18.57 | +$0.45 | 57% 13509-10335 (23844) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $9.88 | -$0.11 | 32% 4390-9443 (13833) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.8¢ | $3.53 | $2.34 | -$1.19 | 18% 525-2348 (2873) |
Invested
$29.08
Value
$30.18
PnL
+$1.1
Record
53%
6459-5657 (12116)
Invested
$69.29
Value
$18.57
PnL
+$0.45
Record
57%
13509-10335 (23844)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.88
PnL
-$0.11
Record
32%
4390-9443 (13833)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$3.53
Value
$2.34
PnL
-$1.19
Record
18%
525-2348 (2873)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.