Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (79%). 13 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on November 8?

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (87%) · No at 22¢ · $84 held · ends Nov 8

Yes79¢No21¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 87%

Total Value

$84.31

Combined PnL

-$15.42

Research grade

AvoidNo at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 79%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes79%

No22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$73.43

Total Shares195

Combined PnL-$15.29

Yes2 traders

Total Value$10.88

Total Shares21

Combined PnL-$0.13

No — 87%Yes — 13%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 54.9¢	$68.67	$15.68	-$4.85	45% 18006-22281 (40287)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Noavg 50.2¢	$15.76	$12.96	-$2.8	53% 4150-3716 (7866)
Roflan-ludoman<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$10.2	$10	-$0.2	62% 697-436 (1133)
balthazarCTR<$100	No	$9.99	$9.99	+$0	34% 33217-64988 (98205)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$8.99	$7.92	-$1.07	38% 2430-3890 (6320)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$9.4	$7.4	-$2	19% 2981-12794 (15775)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 38.2¢	$7.01	$6.8	-$0.22	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
IstarothCTR<$100	Noavg 46.6¢	$6.85	$4.41	-$2.44	13% 603-4221 (4824)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 51.6¢	$25.46	$3.56	+$0.21	49% 43869-46551 (90420)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$2.1	$1.85	-$0.25	24% 8014-25858 (33872)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 41.8¢	$2.16	$1.11	-$1.05	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 57¢	$1.58	$1.03	-$0.56	36% 1206-2165 (3371)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$0.81	$0.88	+$0.07	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Noavg 50.2¢	$50.24	$0.38	-$0.25	26% 2319-6715 (9034)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$0.36	$0.34	-$0.02	28% 3048-7956 (11004)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$68.67

Value

$15.68

PnL

-$4.85

Record

45%

18006-22281 (40287)

BilberryCTR<$100

Invested

$15.76

Value

$12.96

PnL

-$2.8

Record

53%

4150-3716 (7866)

Roflan-ludoman<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.2

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.2

Record

62%

697-436 (1133)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

33217-64988 (98205)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$8.99

Value

$7.92

PnL

-$1.07

Record

38%

2430-3890 (6320)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$9.4

Value

$7.4

PnL

-$2

Record

19%

2981-12794 (15775)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$7.01

Value

$6.8

PnL

-$0.22

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

IstarothCTR<$100

Invested

$6.85

Value

$4.41

PnL

-$2.44

Record

13%

603-4221 (4824)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$25.46

Value

$3.56

PnL

+$0.21

Record

49%

43869-46551 (90420)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$2.1

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$0.25

Record

24%

8014-25858 (33872)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$2.16

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$1.05

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$1.58

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$0.56

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.81

Value

$0.88

PnL

+$0.07

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

hello.67CTR<$100

Invested

$50.24

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$0.25

Record

26%

2319-6715 (9034)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$0.02

Record

28%

3048-7956 (11004)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 79%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.4%

21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$327.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

427.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.