Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on November 5?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 56¢ · $635 held · ends Nov 5

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$634.97

Combined PnL

$136.26

Smart Money Entry

46.2¢ → 55.5¢

+20% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$495.82

Total Shares870

Combined PnL+$93.53

No4 traders

Total Value$31.88

Total Shares45

Combined PnL+$42.73

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 45.5¢	$553.16	$312.53	+$60.86	42% 799-1116 (1915)
HE hello.67	Yesavg 49.2¢	$94.7	$111.53	+$16.83	48% 2166-2363 (4529)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 52.5¢	$123.34	$107.24	-$2.31	15% 459-2699 (3158)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49.3¢	$52.89	$62.2	+$9.33
└ No leg	Noavg 52.5¢	$56.34	$45.04	-$11.63
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 43.2¢	$47.08	$63.22	+$16.14	58% 2490-1820 (4310)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 57.5¢	$27.54	$17.9	+$4.23	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 56.9¢	$8.83	$8.53	-$0.3	54% 9970-8663 (18633)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 44.5¢	$6.73	$6.36	-$0.37	47% 2130-2428 (4558)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$6.02	$6.36	+$39.41	39% 1066-1669 (2735)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 60.9¢	$17.59	$1.26	-$0.53	59% 11786-8040 (19826)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$553.16

Value

$312.53

PnL

+$60.86

Record

42%

799-1116 (1915)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$94.7

Value

$111.53

PnL

+$16.83

Record

48%

2166-2363 (4529)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$123.34

Value

$107.24

PnL

-$2.31

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

Both legs:

Invested

$47.08

Value

$63.22

PnL

+$16.14

Record

58%

2490-1820 (4310)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$27.54

Value

$17.9

PnL

+$4.23

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.83

Value

$8.53

PnL

-$0.3

Record

54%

9970-8663 (18633)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$6.73

Value

$6.36

PnL

-$0.37

Record

47%

2130-2428 (4558)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$6.02

Value

$6.36

PnL

+$39.41

Record

39%

1066-1669 (2735)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$17.59

Value

$1.26

PnL

-$0.53

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.