Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (61%). 1 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on November 6?

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (14%) · Yes at 40¢ · $245 held · ends Nov 6

Yes40¢No60¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 14%

Total Value

$245

Combined PnL

$4.36

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 7 top traders (14%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$142.13

Total Shares254

Combined PnL+$13.87

No6 traders

Total Value$103.29

Total Shares159

Combined PnL-$9.51

Yes — 14%No — 86%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 45.9¢	$128.26	$142.13	+$13.87	41% 799-1129 (1928)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 53¢	$53.23	$50	-$3.01	14% 464-2779 (3243)
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 55.1¢	$21.83	$19.43	-$2.4	39% 5672-8728 (14400)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 53.2¢	$15.97	$14.7	-$1.27	51% 3696-3543 (7239)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 53.2¢	$10.65	$9.8	-$0.85	53% 22650-19900 (42550)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 61.2¢	$8.63	$6.91	-$1.72	77% 12555-3711 (16266)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 54.2¢	$2.71	$2.45	-$0.26	50% 662-667 (1329)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$128.26

Value

$142.13

PnL

+$13.87

Record

41%

799-1129 (1928)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$53.23

Value

$50

PnL

-$3.01

Record

14%

464-2779 (3243)

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$21.83

Value

$19.43

PnL

-$2.4

Record

39%

5672-8728 (14400)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$15.97

Value

$14.7

PnL

-$1.27

Record

51%

3696-3543 (7239)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$10.65

Value

$9.8

PnL

-$0.85

Record

53%

22650-19900 (42550)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$8.63

Value

$6.91

PnL

-$1.72

Record

77%

12555-3711 (16266)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$2.71

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.26

Record

50%

662-667 (1329)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 7 top traders (14%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.