Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on November 8?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 21¢ · $348 held · ends Nov 8

Yes21¢No79¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$347.58

Combined PnL

$15.98

Smart Money Entry

31.2¢ → 20.5¢

-34% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$96.21

Total Shares363

Combined PnL+$10.61

No1 trader

Total Value$45.6

Total Shares60

Combined PnL+$5.36

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$164.58	$205.78	+$26.82	38% 887-1421 (2308)
└ No leg	Noavg 69.5¢	$95.93	$104.88	-$5.43
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28¢	$106.53	$100.9	+$32.25
BI BilberryCTR	Yesavg 31.3¢	$73.59	$85.61	+$12.02	53% 4144-3712 (7856)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 67.1¢	$40.24	$45.6	+$5.36	53% 24342-21404 (45746)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 31.1¢	$6.21	$5.3	-$0.91	32% 2247-4752 (6999)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$5.79	$5.29	-$0.5	19% 2967-12558 (15525)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$164.58

Value

$205.78

PnL

+$26.82

Record

38%

887-1421 (2308)

Both legs:

Invested

$73.59

Value

$85.61

PnL

+$12.02

Record

53%

4144-3712 (7856)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$40.24

Value

$45.6

PnL

+$5.36

Record

53%

24342-21404 (45746)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.21

Value

$5.3

PnL

-$0.91

Record

32%

2247-4752 (6999)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.79

Value

$5.29

PnL

-$0.5

Record

19%

2967-12558 (15525)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.3%

20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$347.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

447.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.