Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on November 5?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $163 held · ends Nov 5
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$162.86
-$271.22
34.4¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
38h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 54¢ | $138.66 | $109.95 | +$50.72 | 14% 520-3143 (3663) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 67.7¢ | $36.52 | $36.5 | +$11.79 | 54% 10311-8906 (19217) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 57.7¢ | $69.3 | $15.17 | +$0.51 | 58% 20305-14907 (35212) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 36.8¢ | $893.86 | $0.45 | -$328.1 | 40% 830-1231 (2061) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.5¢ | $6.17 | $0.04 | -$6.13 | 31% 2683-6056 (8739) |
IstarothInvested
$138.66
Value
$109.95
PnL
+$50.72
Record
14%
520-3143 (3663)
Invested
$36.52
Value
$36.5
PnL
+$11.79
Record
54%
10311-8906 (19217)
Invested
$69.3
Value
$15.17
PnL
+$0.51
Record
58%
20305-14907 (35212)
Invested
$893.86
Value
$0.45
PnL
-$328.1
Record
40%
830-1231 (2061)
Invested
$6.17
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$6.13
Record
31%
2683-6056 (8739)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.