Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on November 6?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 85¢ · $338 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$338.12
$40.3
74¢ → 84.5¢
+14% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Mature
24h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 72.1¢ | $206.2 | $241.11 | +$34.91 | 38% 851-1396 (2247) |
 Roflan-ludoman<$100 | Noavg 82.7¢ | $55.8 | $58 | +$2.2 | 62% 658-398 (1056) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 72.5¢ | $10.79 | $25.57 | +$2.15 | 58% 21230-15422 (36652) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 82.1¢ | $10.67 | $6.88 | +$0.32 | 42% 837-1172 (2009) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.7¢ | $74.26 | $6.56 | +$0.73 | 72% 13834-5358 (19192) |
Invested
$206.2
Value
$241.11
PnL
+$34.91
Record
38%
851-1396 (2247)
Roflan-ludoman<$100Invested
$55.8
Value
$58
PnL
+$2.2
Record
62%
658-398 (1056)
Invested
$10.79
Value
$25.57
PnL
+$2.15
Record
58%
21230-15422 (36652)
Invested
$10.67
Value
$6.88
PnL
+$0.32
Record
42%
837-1172 (2009)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$74.26
Value
$6.56
PnL
+$0.73
Record
72%
13834-5358 (19192)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.