Back to Markets
Yes
balthazar<$100NoYesYes
IstarothCTR<$100YesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on November 1?
Resolved No. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$58.9
Smart Money Signal
Yes
5 of 6 top traders (83%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares412
Combined PnL-$58.9
No1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 83%No — 17%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.3¢ | $58.91 | — | -$58.9 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 92.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 21345-13642 (34987) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6690-5888 (12578) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 365-1641 (2006) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 36% 16080-28084 (44164) |
24
241532532432CTR<$100Invested
$58.91
Value
—
PnL
-$58.9
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
21345-13642 (34987)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6690-5888 (12578)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
365-1641 (2006)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
16080-28084 (44164)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Condition ID
0x8fa6650b...771a83
Slug
highest-temperature-in-shenzhen-on-november-1-2026-31c