Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 30?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 55¢ · $890 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$890.39
-$7.74
75¢ → 55¢
-27% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 75.1¢ | $562.86 | $547.02 | -$15.84 | 51% 611-597 (1208) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 74.4¢ | $350.31 | $321.83 | -$6.61 | 22% 291-1049 (1340) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 74.4¢ | $239.61 | $225.29 | -$14.55 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26.5¢ | $85.23 | $96.55 | +$7.93 | |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.1¢ | $11.78 | $12.47 | +$8.99 | 57% 13390-10234 (23624) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $6.5 | $5.15 | -$1.35 | 18% 522-2344 (2866) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.7¢ | $3.46 | $3.91 | +$0.45 | 59% 1694-1159 (2853) |
Invested
$562.86
Value
$547.02
PnL
-$15.84
Record
51%
611-597 (1208)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$350.31
Value
$321.83
PnL
-$6.61
Record
22%
291-1049 (1340)
Both legs:
Invested
$11.78
Value
$12.47
PnL
+$8.99
Record
57%
13390-10234 (23624)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$6.5
Value
$5.15
PnL
-$1.35
Record
18%
522-2344 (2866)
Invested
$3.46
Value
$3.91
PnL
+$0.45
Record
59%
1694-1159 (2853)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.