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NoNoYes
balthazar<$100NoNo
Istaroth<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on November 1?
Resolved No. 17% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 33%
Total Value
$377.26
Combined PnL
-$229.15
Smart Money Signal
Yes
1 of 6 top traders (17%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No5 traders
Total Value$377.26
Total Shares377
Combined PnL+$103.8
Yes1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,161
Combined PnL-$332.95
No — 83%Yes — 17%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 72.8¢ | $262.29 | $360.46 | +$98.17 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 66.5¢ | $11.17 | $16.8 | +$5.63 | 53% 6690-5888 (12578) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 28.7¢ | $332.95 | — | -$332.95 | 50% 673-674 (1347) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 65.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 21345-13642 (34987) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 68.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 76.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 365-1641 (2006) |
24
241532532432Invested
$262.29
Value
$360.46
PnL
+$98.17
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100Invested
$11.17
Value
$16.8
PnL
+$5.63
Record
53%
6690-5888 (12578)
0X
0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTRInvested
$332.95
Value
—
PnL
-$332.95
Record
50%
673-674 (1347)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
21345-13642 (34987)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Istaroth<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
365-1641 (2006)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xef762dfd...928530
Slug
highest-temperature-in-shenzhen-on-november-1-2026-29c