Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 31?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 78¢ · $308 held · ends Oct 31

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$307.71

Combined PnL

-$14.46

Smart Money Entry

82.5¢ → 78¢

-5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$147.35

Total Shares845

Combined PnL-$12.62

No4 traders

Total Value$160.35

Total Shares179

Combined PnL-$1.84

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.3¢	$96.68	$73.78	-$22.9	51% 623-608 (1231)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.6¢	$57.51	$66.44	+$8.93	50% 1752-1734 (3486)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 83¢	$63.81	$63.82	+$0.01	61% 20945-13330 (34275)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 83.5¢	$61.5	$59.66	-$1.48	21% 295-1102 (1397)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 80.8¢	$55.58	$33.65	-$0.61	57% 13544-10382 (23926)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.8¢	$5.79	$7.14	+$1.35	59% 1723-1189 (2912)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 76¢	$2.99	$3.22	+$0.24	53% 6464-5663 (12127)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$96.68

Value

$73.78

PnL

-$22.9

Record

51%

623-608 (1231)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.51

Value

$66.44

PnL

+$8.93

Record

50%

1752-1734 (3486)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$63.81

Value

$63.82

PnL

+$0.01

Record

61%

20945-13330 (34275)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$61.5

Value

$59.66

PnL

-$1.48

Record

21%

295-1102 (1397)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$55.58

Value

$33.65

PnL

-$0.61

Record

57%

13544-10382 (23926)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.79

Value

$7.14

PnL

+$1.35

Record

59%

1723-1189 (2912)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$2.99

Value

$3.22

PnL

+$0.24

Record

53%

6464-5663 (12127)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.