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YesYesYesYesYes
LornaPredictsCTR<$100YesNo
Istaroth<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 30?
Resolved No. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
8
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$11.89
Smart Money Signal
Yes
6 of 8 top traders (75%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes6 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares80
Combined PnL-$11.89
No2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 75%No — 25%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.8¢ | $11.89 | — | -$11.89 | 59% 1743-1208 (2951) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1774-1756 (3530) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 626-610 (1236) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6484-5687 (12171) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13603-10423 (24026) |
LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 527-2364 (2891) |
HI HighTempTation<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 99% 1567-4 (1571) |
Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | — | — | +$0 | 21% 300-1148 (1448) |
24
241532532432CTR<$100Invested
$11.89
Value
—
PnL
-$11.89
Record
59%
1743-1208 (2951)
HE
hello.67CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1774-1756 (3530)
0X
0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
626-610 (1236)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6484-5687 (12171)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13603-10423 (24026)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
527-2364 (2891)
HI
HighTempTation<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
1567-4 (1571)
Istaroth<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
21%
300-1148 (1448)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x6e2becc4...f5b049
Slug
highest-temperature-in-shenzhen-on-october-30-2026-29c