Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on November 7?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 100¢ · $521 held · ended Nov 7

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$520.64

Combined PnL

$536.83

Smart Money Entry

41.1¢ → 99.8¢

+143% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$502.21

Total Shares505

Combined PnL+$90.61

No4 traders

Total Value$18.43

Total Shares107

Combined PnL+$446.22

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

52h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 40.4¢	$310.09	$487.14	+$85.7	37% 903-1557 (2460)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 39.5¢	$29.39	$18.22	+$1.67	58% 21689-15792 (37481)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Yesavg 99.8¢	$9.98	$9.99	-$0.01	97% 476-14 (490)
12 123987456<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.43	$2.68	+$2.25	42% 2420-3373 (5793)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 7.8¢	$0.12	$1.25	+$1.13	70% 14146-6050 (20196)
LU luciebot<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.13	$1.16	+$1.54	28% 3038-7860 (10898)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 1.1¢	$26.98	$0.13	+$458.5	39% 1298-2033 (3331)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 47.4¢	$10.34	$0.05	-$10.29	53% 24342-21404 (45746)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 43.3¢	$54.52	$0.03	-$3.67	54% 10730-9241 (19971)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$310.09

Value

$487.14

PnL

+$85.7

Record

37%

903-1557 (2460)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$29.39

Value

$18.22

PnL

+$1.67

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.98

Value

$9.99

PnL

-$0.01

Record

97%

476-14 (490)

123987456<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$2.25

Record

42%

2420-3373 (5793)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$1.25

PnL

+$1.13

Record

70%

14146-6050 (20196)

luciebot<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.13

Value

$1.16

PnL

+$1.54

Record

28%

3038-7860 (10898)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$26.98

Value

$0.13

PnL

+$458.5

Record

39%

1298-2033 (3331)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$10.34

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$10.29

Record

53%

24342-21404 (45746)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$54.52

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$3.67

Record

54%

10730-9241 (19971)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

52h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.