Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (72%). 6 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on November 4?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 28¢ · $515 held · ends Nov 4

Yes72¢No28¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$515.45

Combined PnL

$17.17

Smart Money Entry

43.3¢ → 28.5¢

-34% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes72%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$267.49

Total Shares627

Combined PnL-$3.5

Yes6 traders

Total Value$188.78

Total Shares262

Combined PnL+$20.67

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR	Noavg 45.1¢	$152.15	$155.28	+$3.13	48% 2103-2279 (4382)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$71.94	$75.21	+$3.27	44% 754-963 (1717)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 61.7¢	$55.55	$63.03	+$7.48	53% 9606-8430 (18036)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fARB<$100	Noavg 33.9¢	$58.46	$59.18	+$0.72	59% 1689-1190 (2879)
└ No leg	Noavg 33.9¢	$35.27	$31.24	-$4.03
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 58.1¢	$23.19	$27.94	+$4.75
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Yesavg 67.6¢	$40.22	$43.12	+$2.9	55% 4330-3516 (7846)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 64.7¢	$33.57	$36.71	+$3.81	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Yesavg 73.9¢	$33.91	$31.66	-$2.25	40% 1008-1504 (2512)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 37.6¢	$22.55	$18.3	-$4.25	53% 28631-25561 (54192)
2B9S<$100	Yesavg 8.6¢	$1.72	$10.6	+$8.88	18% 4199-19790 (23989)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$10.07	$10.08	+$0.01	58% 2445-1789 (4234)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 48.2¢	$11.82	$7.22	-$4.59	43% 1325-1779 (3104)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 75.9¢	$3.8	$3.65	-$0.15	47% 1602-1786 (3388)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 48.2¢	$2.45	$1.4	-$1.05	38% 947-1564 (2511)

hello.67CTR

Invested

$152.15

Value

$155.28

PnL

+$3.13

Record

48%

2103-2279 (4382)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Invested

$71.94

Value

$75.21

PnL

+$3.27

Record

44%

754-963 (1717)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.55

Value

$63.03

PnL

+$7.48

Record

53%

9606-8430 (18036)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fARB<$100

Invested

$58.46

Value

$59.18

PnL

+$0.72

Record

59%

1689-1190 (2879)

Both legs:

No$35.2733.9¢-$4.03

Yes$23.1958.1¢+$4.75

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.22

Value

$43.12

PnL

+$2.9

Record

55%

4330-3516 (7846)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.57

Value

$36.71

PnL

+$3.81

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.91

Value

$31.66

PnL

-$2.25

Record

40%

1008-1504 (2512)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$22.55

Value

$18.3

PnL

-$4.25

Record

53%

28631-25561 (54192)

2B9S<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.72

Value

$10.6

PnL

+$8.88

Record

18%

4199-19790 (23989)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$10.07

Value

$10.08

PnL

+$0.01

Record

58%

2445-1789 (4234)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$11.82

Value

$7.22

PnL

-$4.59

Record

43%

1325-1779 (3104)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.65

PnL

-$0.15

Record

47%

1602-1786 (3388)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$2.45

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$1.05

Record

38%

947-1564 (2511)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.