Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on November 6?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 67¢ · $760 held · ends Nov 6

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$760.31

Combined PnL

$58.68

Smart Money Entry

77.8¢ → 66.5¢

-14% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$199.17

Total Shares285

Combined PnL+$58.68

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100	Noavg 77.2¢	$489.42	$561.13	+$71.71	43% 818-1092 (1910)
└ No leg	Noavg 77.2¢	$467.35	$399.47	+$25.35
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24.2¢	$115.3	$161.66	+$46.36
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 85.4¢	$89.61	$71.39	-$18.22	47% 8498-9698 (18196)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 82.6¢	$58.68	$48.29	-$10.39	53% 23170-20401 (43571)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 86.6¢	$25.98	$20.4	-$5.58	46% 10395-12108 (22503)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 86¢	$17.2	$13.6	-$3.6	18% 4430-20777 (25207)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 80¢	$33.99	$12.59	+$2.55	58% 20277-14893 (35170)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 67.1¢	$10.07	$9.98	-$0.09	53% 8428-7501 (15929)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 19.9¢	$9.26	$9.52	+$32.11	39% 1105-1735 (2840)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 66¢	$5.57	$5.61	+$0.04	41% 1232-1796 (3028)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 6.7¢	$5.5	$4.8	+$62.34	49% 8980-9510 (18490)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 85.3¢	$39.33	$1.77	-$0.5	58% 12052-8655 (20707)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 66¢	$1.22	$1.23	+$0.01	50% 9914-9924 (19838)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100

Invested

$489.42

Value

$561.13

PnL

+$71.71

Record

43%

818-1092 (1910)

Both legs:

No$467.3577.2¢+$25.35

Yes$115.324.2¢+$46.36

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$89.61

Value

$71.39

PnL

-$18.22

Record

47%

8498-9698 (18196)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$58.68

Value

$48.29

PnL

-$10.39

Record

53%

23170-20401 (43571)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$25.98

Value

$20.4

PnL

-$5.58

Record

46%

10395-12108 (22503)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$17.2

Value

$13.6

PnL

-$3.6

Record

18%

4430-20777 (25207)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$33.99

Value

$12.59

PnL

+$2.55

Record

58%

20277-14893 (35170)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$10.07

Value

$9.98

PnL

-$0.09

Record

53%

8428-7501 (15929)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$9.26

Value

$9.52

PnL

+$32.11

Record

39%

1105-1735 (2840)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$5.57

Value

$5.61

PnL

+$0.04

Record

41%

1232-1796 (3028)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$5.5

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$62.34

Record

49%

8980-9510 (18490)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$39.33

Value

$1.77

PnL

-$0.5

Record

58%

12052-8655 (20707)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$1.22

Value

$1.23

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

9914-9924 (19838)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.