Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on November 5?

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (54%) · No at 100¢ · $229 held · ends Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 54%

Total Value

$229.43

Combined PnL

$2.52

Smart Money Entry

97.9¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$229.2

Total Shares230

Combined PnL+$4.79

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.23

Total Shares155

Combined PnL-$2.26

No — 54%Yes — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$47.9	$48.15	+$0.25	41% 2306-3340 (5646)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 93.1¢	$53.73	$42.03	+$3.56	58% 20160-14785 (34945)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$39.79	$39.98	+$0.19	59% 12012-8500 (20512)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99¢	$39.58	$39.84	+$0.26	53% 23002-20232 (43234)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$29.8	$29.96	+$0.17	31% 2658-5876 (8534)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$7.41	$21.27	+$0.02	47% 2242-2511 (4753)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$7.62	$7.97	+$0.35	44% 2220-2864 (5084)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.05	$0.11	+$0.06	18% 4414-20716 (25130)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.23	$0.04	-$0.18	53% 29676-26572 (56248)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.25	$0.04	-$0.21	55% 4477-3683 (8160)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$1.59	$0.02	-$1.57	42% 1214-1705 (2919)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$0.28	$0.01	-$0.27	41% 1142-1647 (2789)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.1	$0.01	-$0.09	39% 1093-1715 (2808)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$47.9

Value

$48.15

PnL

+$0.25

Record

41%

2306-3340 (5646)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$53.73

Value

$42.03

PnL

+$3.56

Record

58%

20160-14785 (34945)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$39.79

Value

$39.98

PnL

+$0.19

Record

59%

12012-8500 (20512)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.58

Value

$39.84

PnL

+$0.26

Record

53%

23002-20232 (43234)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$29.8

Value

$29.96

PnL

+$0.17

Record

31%

2658-5876 (8534)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$7.41

Value

$21.27

PnL

+$0.02

Record

47%

2242-2511 (4753)

123987456<$100

Invested

$7.62

Value

$7.97

PnL

+$0.35

Record

44%

2220-2864 (5084)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.11

PnL

+$0.06

Record

18%

4414-20716 (25130)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

29676-26572 (56248)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.21

Record

55%

4477-3683 (8160)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.59

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.57

Record

42%

1214-1705 (2919)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.27

Record

41%

1142-1647 (2789)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.09

Record

39%

1093-1715 (2808)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.