Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on November 6?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $110 held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 50%
$110.38
-$126.89
21.2¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Mature
31h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 78.4¢ | $66.49 | $84.68 | +$18.19 | 53% 23775-20945 (44720) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 77.5¢ | $13.25 | $17.07 | +$3.08 | 58% 21328-15480 (36808) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 21.6¢ | $150.72 | $5.54 | -$145.18 | 40% 846-1253 (2099) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $2.5 | $2.51 | +$0.01 | 97% 264-7 (271) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.8¢ | $2.62 | $0.14 | -$2.48 | 17% 4503-22046 (26549) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.7¢ | $0.53 | $0.04 | -$0.5 | 42% 2362-3236 (5598) |
Invested
$66.49
Value
$84.68
PnL
+$18.19
Record
53%
23775-20945 (44720)
Invested
$13.25
Value
$17.07
PnL
+$3.08
Record
58%
21328-15480 (36808)
Invested
$150.72
Value
$5.54
PnL
-$145.18
Record
40%
846-1253 (2099)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.51
PnL
+$0.01
Record
97%
264-7 (271)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$2.62
Value
$0.14
PnL
-$2.48
Record
17%
4503-22046 (26549)
Invested
$0.53
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$0.5
Record
42%
2362-3236 (5598)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.