Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on November 2?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $417 held · ends Nov 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$417.06

Combined PnL

-$9.21

Smart Money Entry

90.3¢ → 99.8¢

+10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$414.65

Total Shares420

Combined PnL-$10.5

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.4

Total Shares204

Combined PnL+$1.29

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 89¢	$302.49	$335.24	-$13.49	61% 2332-1521 (3853)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$30.17	$30.49	+$0.31	38% 680-1090 (1770)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$22.61	$23.09	+$0.47	35% 698-1270 (1968)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 93.6¢	$111.86	$11.24	+$1.9	57% 17226-12892 (30118)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$8.84	$9.03	+$0.19	42% 938-1305 (2243)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$5.45	$5.57	+$0.11	35% 554-1008 (1562)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.6	$1.95	+$1.35	21% 2257-8431 (10688)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$1.46	$0.25	-$1.21	45% 1527-1832 (3359)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$61.01	$0.14	+$1.21	53% 7522-6644 (14166)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$0.13	$0.07	-$0.07	56% 3732-2932 (6664)

241532532432

Invested

$302.49

Value

$335.24

PnL

-$13.49

Record

61%

2332-1521 (3853)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$30.17

Value

$30.49

PnL

+$0.31

Record

38%

680-1090 (1770)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$22.61

Value

$23.09

PnL

+$0.47

Record

35%

698-1270 (1968)

ghorrock

Invested

$111.86

Value

$11.24

PnL

+$1.9

Record

57%

17226-12892 (30118)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$8.84

Value

$9.03

PnL

+$0.19

Record

42%

938-1305 (2243)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.45

Value

$5.57

PnL

+$0.11

Record

35%

554-1008 (1562)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$1.95

PnL

+$1.35

Record

21%

2257-8431 (10688)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.46

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$1.21

Record

45%

1527-1832 (3359)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.01

Value

$0.14

PnL

+$1.21

Record

53%

7522-6644 (14166)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.07

Record

56%

3732-2932 (6664)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.