Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 13°C on November 6?

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (46%) · Yes at 94¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 6

Yes94¢No6¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 46%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 94.2¢

+90% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes94%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares726

Combined PnL+$830.6

Yes6 traders

Total Value$425.49

Total Shares456

Combined PnL+$255.53

No — 54%Yes — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (11 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Noavg 54.9¢	$573.91	$1.0K	+$766.57	41% 838-1207 (2045)
HE HellYeahTrader	Yesavg 95.2¢	$199.92	$197.5	-$2.43	56% 705-551 (1256)
HE hello.67	Yesavg 7¢	$57.57	$140.52	+$165.23	32% 2221-4718 (6939)
Lucerys	Yesavg 15.9¢	$185.48	$55.43	+$63.99	72% 13808-5339 (19147)
IstarothCTR	Noavg 34¢	$114.51	$26.55	-$0.73	13% 529-3424 (3953)
LU luciebot<$100	Yesavg 14.5¢	$16.81	$18.14	+$17.18	28% 2773-7209 (9982)
GH ghorrockCTR	Noavg 46.9¢	$121.44	$12.17	+$1.76	58% 21212-15411 (36623)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Yesavg 24.9¢	$2.06	$9.27	+$7.21	58% 6725-4789 (11514)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 13.6¢	$15.12	$7.98	-$7.14	53% 23521-20733 (44254)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 10.9¢	$36.15	$7.22	-$9.07	53% 8553-7624 (16177)
12 123987456<$100	Yesavg 10.7¢	$0.28	$4.64	+$4.35	42% 2327-3174 (5501)
2B9SCTR<$100	Noavg 17.9¢	$33.16	$2.04	+$62.88	17% 4496-22003 (26499)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 5.1¢	$36.45	$0.27	+$16.35	52% 30859-28946 (59805)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Invested

$573.91

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$766.57

Record

41%

838-1207 (2045)

HellYeahTrader

Yes

Invested

$199.92

Value

$197.5

PnL

-$2.43

Record

56%

705-551 (1256)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$57.57

Value

$140.52

PnL

+$165.23

Record

32%

2221-4718 (6939)

Lucerys

Yes

Invested

$185.48

Value

$55.43

PnL

+$63.99

Record

72%

13808-5339 (19147)

IstarothCTR

Invested

$114.51

Value

$26.55

PnL

-$0.73

Record

13%

529-3424 (3953)

luciebot<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.81

Value

$18.14

PnL

+$17.18

Record

28%

2773-7209 (9982)

ghorrockCTR

Invested

$121.44

Value

$12.17

PnL

+$1.76

Record

58%

21212-15411 (36623)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.06

Value

$9.27

PnL

+$7.21

Record

58%

6725-4789 (11514)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$15.12

Value

$7.98

PnL

-$7.14

Record

53%

23521-20733 (44254)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$36.15

Value

$7.22

PnL

-$9.07

Record

53%

8553-7624 (16177)

123987456<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

$4.64

PnL

+$4.35

Record

42%

2327-3174 (5501)

2B9SCTR<$100

Invested

$33.16

Value

$2.04

PnL

+$62.88

Record

17%

4496-22003 (26499)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$36.45

Value

$0.27

PnL

+$16.35

Record

52%

30859-28946 (59805)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (11 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.4%

94.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.