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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 13°C on November 3?

Resolved No. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.23

Combined PnL

-$3.37

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$0.23

Total Shares0

Combined PnL+$0

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares39

Combined PnL-$3.37

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$0.23	$0.23	+$0	43% 1325-1779 (3104)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	-$2.32	48% 8542-9084 (17626)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.9¢	$1.11	—	-$1.05	20% 2469-9859 (12328)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	40% 2066-3096 (5162)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	35% 17549-32799 (50348)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	47% 2044-2320 (4364)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	62% 14540-9089 (23629)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	39% 974-1548 (2522)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	42% 2905-3998 (6903)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.23

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

1325-1779 (3104)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

-$2.32

Record

48%

8542-9084 (17626)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$1.11

Value

—

PnL

-$1.05

Record

20%

2469-9859 (12328)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

2066-3096 (5162)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

17549-32799 (50348)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

2044-2320 (4364)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

14540-9089 (23629)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

974-1548 (2522)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

2905-3998 (6903)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x8dbb17dd...282905

Slug

highest-temperature-in-seoul-on-november-3-2026-13c

Traders in this Market

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354

No — $0.23

smallreceipt

Yes — $0

LornaPredicts

Yes — $0

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

No — $0

xtxpleasecallme

Yes — $0

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

No — $0

graynotebook19

No — $0

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

No — $0

merod

No — $0

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