Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (62%). 7 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on November 5?

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 39¢ · $743 held · ends Nov 5

Yes62¢No38¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$742.83

Combined PnL

$69.06

Smart Money Entry

37.8¢ → 38.5¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 16 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$386.24

Total Shares750

Combined PnL+$66.73

Yes9 traders

Total Value$199.97

Total Shares276

Combined PnL+$2.33

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Yesavg 62.7¢	$156.88	$156.62	-$0.26	54% 10260-8877 (19137)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 62.7¢	$89.34	$96.2	+$6.86
└ No leg	Noavg 36.3¢	$67.55	$60.43	-$7.12
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Noavg 48.3¢	$202.75	$122.35	-$8.94	41% 825-1203 (2028)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 25.9¢	$55.89	$99.67	+$43.78	42% 1214-1705 (2919)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 25.8¢	$49.09	$81	+$34.53	59% 12012-8500 (20512)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 31.5¢	$27.47	$34.53	+$7.05	41% 1142-1647 (2789)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 52.2¢	$28.01	$34.32	+$6.5	14% 503-3033 (3536)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 55.3¢	$36.7	$33.72	-$2.98	41% 2306-3340 (5646)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Yesavg 49.8¢	$28.06	$32.46	+$4.4	41% 1203-1759 (2962)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Yesavg 54.5¢	$29.86	$32.29	+$2.43	39% 1093-1715 (2808)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 58.1¢	$28.97	$29.1	+$0.13	47% 1706-1889 (3595)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Yesavg 54.3¢	$30.86	$26.56	-$4.3	55% 4477-3683 (8160)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 63.6¢	$72.37	$17.22	-$12.86	53% 8400-7487 (15887)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Yesavg 51.5¢	$14.24	$16.18	+$1.94	47% 2242-2511 (4753)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 56.4¢	$20.52	$14	-$6.52	35% 18692-34699 (53391)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 59.2¢	$19.7	$9.64	+$1.43	58% 20160-14785 (34945)
LU luciebot<$100	Yes	$2.2	$2.2	+$2.66	31% 2658-5876 (8534)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 54¢	$1.17	$0.98	-$0.2	53% 23002-20232 (43234)

PoligarchARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$156.88

Value

$156.62

PnL

-$0.26

Record

54%

10260-8877 (19137)

Both legs:

Yes$89.3462.7¢+$6.86

No$67.5536.3¢-$7.12

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Invested

$202.75

Value

$122.35

PnL

-$8.94

Record

41%

825-1203 (2028)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$55.89

Value

$99.67

PnL

+$43.78

Record

42%

1214-1705 (2919)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$49.09

Value

$81

PnL

+$34.53

Record

59%

12012-8500 (20512)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$27.47

Value

$34.53

PnL

+$7.05

Record

41%

1142-1647 (2789)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.01

Value

$34.32

PnL

+$6.5

Record

14%

503-3033 (3536)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$36.7

Value

$33.72

PnL

-$2.98

Record

41%

2306-3340 (5646)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.06

Value

$32.46

PnL

+$4.4

Record

41%

1203-1759 (2962)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.86

Value

$32.29

PnL

+$2.43

Record

39%

1093-1715 (2808)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.97

Value

$29.1

PnL

+$0.13

Record

47%

1706-1889 (3595)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.86

Value

$26.56

PnL

-$4.3

Record

55%

4477-3683 (8160)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.37

Value

$17.22

PnL

-$12.86

Record

53%

8400-7487 (15887)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.24

Value

$16.18

PnL

+$1.94

Record

47%

2242-2511 (4753)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$20.52

Value

$14

PnL

-$6.52

Record

35%

18692-34699 (53391)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.7

Value

$9.64

PnL

+$1.43

Record

58%

20160-14785 (34945)

luciebot<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$2.66

Record

31%

2658-5876 (8534)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$1.17

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

23002-20232 (43234)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 39%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 16 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.