Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on November 2?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $26 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$26.43
$0.36
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $5.09 | $13.92 | +$0.04 | 42% 938-1305 (2243) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $11.03 | $11.04 | +$0.01 | 38% 751-1204 (1955) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $1.15 | $1.15 | +$0 | 38% 1387-2298 (3685) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.02 | $0.32 | +$0.3 | 21% 2257-8431 (10688) |
Invested
$5.09
Value
$13.92
PnL
+$0.04
Record
42%
938-1305 (2243)
Invested
$11.03
Value
$11.04
PnL
+$0.01
Record
38%
751-1204 (1955)
Invested
$1.15
Value
$1.15
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
1387-2298 (3685)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.32
PnL
+$0.3
Record
21%
2257-8431 (10688)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.